All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Ariel also writes for CBS Sports, SportsLine, RotoBaller, and is the host of the Beat the Shift Podcast (@Beat_Shift_Pod). The Dodgers have a lot of work to do this offseason, but they started off as an absurdly good team, leaving them at the top of the projected division. A man is dead after an overnight shooting in Stockton, marking the city's second homicide of the year. Vladito versus Olson for supremacy in the AL should be a fun battle the next few years, though the former is likely to vanquish the latter for good in a few years given their respective ages. by Handedness, FanGraphs Power Rankings: Opening Day 2022, A Conversation With Yankees Rookie Right-hander Ron Marinaccio, With Lance Lynn Sidelined, the White Sox Turn to Johnny Cueto. Over the last decade, ZiPS has averaged 19.9 correct teams when looking at Vegas preseason over/under lines. 2023 projected standings for major league baseball teams. Ariel is the 2019 FSWA Baseball Writer of the Year. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors The Reds made it very clear that they were looking to slash payroll this offseason, bending over backwards to frame their roster deconstruction as the beginning of a realignment, not a rebuild. Projection systems and all their glory have arrived. Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. On the pitching side of things, lingering elbow issues for Lance McCullers Jr. have made the depth of their rotation a question mark. Playoff odds tell how likely an MLB team will win the division, wild card berth or win the World Series. That doesn't leave much time to handicap 2022 MLB win totals. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. The ATC projections are more bullish on the White Sox's chances in 2022, putting the odds of Chicago making the playoffs at 82% versus the FanGraphs Depth Charts (FGDC) figure of 72%. Shane Bazs elbow injury is concerning, but Yonny Chirinos should be making a return from his own elbow injury and Corey Kluber was signed to give them a little more stability in their rotation. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Yikes. Sure, finishing his Atlanta career with a World Series trophy is a storybook ending, but thats for a 39-year-old Freeman, so lets can the epilogue for now. They just need to win 62.2% at home and just 48% on the road, the way that they did in 2007 and 2009, in order to be a playoff team. Even with a healthy team here Fangraphs projection stands and the Angels are projected to finish in 4th place in the AL West." Sign up for the Whats more encouraging is the top prospects who are one year closer to making their major league debuts; Alek Thomas and Corbin Carroll could both show up at some point during the season. After all, they didnt even win their own division last year after taking the NL West eight years in a row. The Angels have the benefit here of having most of the teams performance tied up in just a few players, with nobody crucial headed to free agency. The Guardians and Royals are both teams with limited short-term upside after low-key offseasons. Cardinals fans will have plenty to celebrate whether or not the team makes the playoffs; Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols have already announced that 2022 will be their last year in the majors, and Wainwright has heavily hinted at joining them in retirement after the season. The last move giving Rodrguez the chance to start with the team may be the biggest source. Thats a trickier question, given the contours of the roster. The projections haven't figured out how to handle the Rays' brand of excessively deep roster construction. Spring time in baseball is a wonderful, wonderful thing. There just isnt much depth behind their new stars, and their pitching staff remains a mess. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. ZiPS sees the Twins rotation as increasingly deep, but without any huge upside, and Carlos Correa will almost certainly be in another teams uniform come Opening Day. The Premier League fixtures for the 2022-23 season were announced on Thursday June 16, 2022 at 4am ET. Similar to the Yankees with Judge, the Astros arent likely to just shrug and stand pat if Justin Verlander doesnt return. With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. If I were a Rockies fan, Id have voted to legalize psychedelic mushrooms, too. Some may think it disappointing that the Mariners are still projected to win fewer games than in 2021, but exceeding Pythagorean record by 14 wins isnt something that actually has value in gauging future performance. Make no mistake even with their long-time franchise icon out of the picture after 12 seasons, the Braves are reloaded and ready to rock. Bringing in Nelson Cruz to be a veteran mentor was a nice touch, and Stephen Strasburg could potentially return from his Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery mid-season. If those additions can elevate the production of their pitching staff, and Trout, Ohtani, and Anthony Rendon can stay healthy, the Angels could have a shot at toppling the Astros in the AL West. Not giving Witt every opportunity to be a foundational talent at shortstop so that the Royals can be a .480 team instead of a .478 one doesnt feel like it has the same upside. Braves Hall of Fame profile: Bronson Arroyo. 2022 ZiPS Projections: Atlanta Braves. Well start with the AL East: You shouldnt be surprised to see the Yankees crash back to earth here, based on the simple fact that the dude worth 11.4 WAR for them this past season hint, its not Tim Locastro is currently unsigned. Earlier this offseason, we released our team expected win totals and playoff odds for the 2022 season. Padres sneaking in as a WC team and reaching or possibly winning the WS would be an amazing 2022. The result is a million different rosters for each team and an associated winning percentage for each of those million teams. The Mets might have snuck into the bottom of the second tier if Jacob deGrom hadnt gotten hurt this spring, sidelining him for the first half of the season. ATC is smart aggregation of other projections; its methodology is based on the process that Nate Silver uses with his political forecasting model over at FiveThirtyEight. Speaking of the Red Sox, Im not a fan of how much playing time theyre likely to give to Jackie Bradley Jr., but the Story signing, with the resulting shuffle of Enrique Hernndez to center field, resolved at least one of their outfield issues. Despite all these new faces in Minnesota, the pitching staff still feels thin. 2022 Year to Date: 2022 Projected Rest of Season: So how does ZiPS calculate the upcoming season? So there you go, if projection models are your thing, thats all good news from two of the biggest sites in the baseball community. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, by Handedness, Looking Back at the 2022 ZiPS Projections, 2022 ZiPS Projections: Washington Nationals, 2022 ZiPS Projections: Kansas City Royals. PECOTA, FanGraphs Projections MLB News Written By Staff on March 29, 2022 After the lockout, Major League Baseball's opening day is now April 7. Read the rest of this entry . The exercise continues this offseason. Below is the full schedule, as you can watch all 380 . Interestingly, projected for the 8th best record and 4th best (tied) run differential. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, The Phillies certainly need a starting pitcher, and ZiPS is less than enthralled with the situation at second base and definitely isnt on Team Brandon Marsh. But this is also the Mets were talking about; anything that could go wrong probably will. Dont worry, they still have between $0M and $10M in payroll space and 1 top-100 prospect, plus a couple others in the 100-200 range that could be traded to help the roster. This would the same mistake that the Orioles made some years ago with Manny Machado and J.J. Hardy; for a handful of runs, the team would needlessly be lowering the ceiling on a franchise player. I cant say Im displeased to see Luis Uras at the top of the batter list Ive long been fascinated by him and even featured him on my breakout list last year but Id definitely be uneasy about having him as my teams best player. Like the Rays, the projection systems have no idea what to do with the Giants. Calibration is a long-term project, and while chasing greater accuracy in mean projections isnt likely to result in any huge bounty theres a reason projection systems are so tightly clustered theres still improvement to be had in things like calibrating uncertainty and long-term data. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. Like the rest of the teams in this tier, the Royals are just oozing with young talent. Last year, when PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus projection model, predicted the Braves would only win 82 games, all of Braves Twitter lost its collective mind. The Cards (catcher, a starting pitcher) and Brewers (two outfielders) have similar levels of neediness, and this preliminary projection basically preserves their relative 2022 standing. The team has a credible backup at most positions and even some upper minors depth (Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and, if you believe Steamer rather than ZiPS, Khalil Lee) they can use if the need arises. #1 Adley Rutschman. Read the rest of this entry . The As might have had one more competitive season with their core that won nearly 60% of their games from 2018 to 20. Read the rest of this entry . I talked quite a lot about Francos outlook when he he signed his big ol contract extension, so I wont rehash that here. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. ZiPS then automatically fills in playing time from the next players on the list (proportionally) to get to a full slate of plate appearances and innings. AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, (select parishes), MD, MI, NH, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY, CA-ONT only.Eligibility restrictions apply. Reports are coming in the Cleveland has extended JRam. The last move giving Rodrguez the chance to start with the team may be the biggest source. Lets start with how teams performed versus their projections: Teams have gotten a bit more polarized in how theyre run in-season. In truth, the projections for Arizona were so positive on the whole that I actually went back and double-checked every park factor and calculation specific to the Diamondbacks and their minor league affiliates. Crochets elbow injury, meanwhile, wouldnt have been as big a blow to the teams depth if it hadnt come immediately after the White Sox traded away Craig Kimbrel. Martinez and Alex Verdugo. When it comes to the Giants, ZiPS is increasingly a fan of Kyle Harrison, which helps to mute some of the loss of Carlos Rodn. Welcome to our NHL projections and probabilities page where you will find each team's projected point total, its probability of . The first part is Juan Soto, who got Ted Williams as his top offensive comp. Actually, the reason theyve spent no money is that Dolan is cheap and knows hell make money win or lose. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. As for Baseball Prospectus, theyr projection model is called PECOTA which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, as Im sure you knew. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Obviously ideally they would be generally good players who can thrive in Denver and just fall off less elsewhere. Now, imagine a scenario in which Acua isnt quite ready, Ozuna is struggling, and the Braves have to field a designated hitter in addition to cobbling together whatever at first. The Marlins are in a similar position as they were last year, with a highly interesting young pitching staff and an absolutely atrocious offense that they cant even commit weekend dad levels of attention to fixing. Dropping $125M on JRam doesnt seem to square with your assessment. Thats true for everyone in baseball, but the error bars for the win projections for this quintet feel particularly wide. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Plenty of their magic from last season seems sustainable even if the projection systems cant recognize it, but it still feels like everything needs to go right, again, if theyre going to be a contender in 2022. Starts at 6:30 pm. The problem is, hitting home runs has never really been the Rockies problem. Next up: The start of the team-by-team projections, beginning with the Boston Red Sox. With Joey Votto, reigning NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India, Luis Castillo, and Tyler Mahle still on the roster, Cincinnati has some talent left, but it was a very confusing process to get to this point. He is a Vice President of Risk Management for a large international insurance and reinsurance company. Daimon Latino Nights is open every Wednesday from 8 PM to 2 AM. Both models also assign less than a 2% chance to the Rockies, Orioles, Athletics, Diamondbacks and Pirates making the playoffs. But without their ace, their ceiling is just a bit lower. Below are the projections for the New York Mets. Theres a reason that Alex Anthopoulos had to remake the outfield on the fly last summer, which is something that you ideally dont have to do again in 2022. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Texas, on the other hand, had an incredibly productive offseason, but the fact remains that this was an awful team entering the winter. Despite losing Freddie Freeman, the Braves have managed to restock a significant portion of their roster in their quest to become the first repeat World Series champions since the 19982000 Yankees. Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco are both on the wrong side of 35, and the former has already dealt with some minor injuries this spring. He was the biggest addition to their club, but they also traded for Sonny Gray, Gary Snchez, and Gio Urshela, and made a last minute move for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagn. While its still taken as an assumption that hell return, the fact is he didnt sign before the 2021 season, he didnt sign during the 2021 season, and he didnt sign before the lockout. Outbidding Minnesota for Correa (or signing Trevor Story) would have been a more elegant and probably superior solution to the the Josh Donaldson trade, without adding significant money to the payroll. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. I guess this explains why theyve spent no money this offseason. Baltimore had the excuse of being a good team in a tough division, in which absolutely maximizing wins had a great deal of value. With their rebuilding phase quickly coming to an end, they traded for Jesse Winker, Eugenio Surez, and Adam Frazier, and signed Ray to a long-term contract. Should the Orioles trade Mountcastle for a good starter? They traded for Matt Olson and immediately signed him to an eight-year extension, giving them their long-term replacement at first base. Relative to the Yankees, the big losses for the Rays (Corey Kluber, Kevin Kiermaier) and Jays (pretty much just Ross Stripling) are relatively mild. (You can learn more about the FanGraphs playoff odds here.). Hartstein went 68-50 ATS (58 percent) and 8-3 on money line . Adding Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray, Mitch Garver, Kole Calhoun, and Brad Miller certainly lifts the ceiling of their roster, but it still remains incredibly top heavy. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. Lance Lynns knee injury isnt as serious as Garrett Crochets Tommy John surgery, but losing the former means Chicago will have to turn to either Vince Velasquez or Reynaldo Lpez until Johnny Cueto is ready to go. Tampa Bay won 100 games last year, and the bulk of that same roster returns in 2022.. He is the creator of the ATC (Average Total Cost) Projection System. Signing Kris Bryant to launch dingers into the stratosphere in Denvers thin air is undeniably cool and fun. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski. Completely bonkers if the payroll stays there, but since it ranged from $136M-$157M from 2017-2019 Id say its a safe bet to increase. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Theyll get a full season of Wander Franco and just handed the keys to another one of their top prospects in Josh Lowe after trading Austin Meadows this week. As you can see, FanGraphs is pretty high on the 2022 team. . You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Maybe Zack Greinke being back in Royal blue for 2022 will help them find another level. OK, not really. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Uras projects to essentially repeat his 2021 season. Braves News: Dana Brown Interviews with Astros, Thoughts on Extending Max Fried, more, Keeping Max Fried is more important than Freddie Freeman or Dansby Swanson. The White Sox remain the best team in the AL Central, and adding AJ Pollock balances out losing Craig Kimbrel (traded for Pollock) and Garrett Crochet (impending Tommy John surgery). The premium ad-free membership. Projected amid the pack this offseason, the Twins have likely shoved their way out of the scrum by adding Correa and Sonny Gray. While the Guardians seem to be content to let their kids play in 2022, the Tigers went out and acquired a ton of talent to supplement their top prospects who are ready to graduate to the majors: Javier Bez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Meadows, and Tucker Barnhart. Below are the projections for the Milwaukee Brewers. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. In five years, he could be their Carlos Correa. The Rays are another possible answer, though. Depth Charts: FanGraphs Depth Chart projections are a combination of ZiPS and Steamer projections with playing time allocated by our staff. The contract that Carlos Correa signed with the Twins really calls into question some of the Yankees maneuvering during the final weeks of the offseason. And do note that the numbers coming out of cleveland are above and beyond raises and extensions. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted In the American League Central, ATC is also modeling a 5% better chance of the Guardians being part of the postseason, whereas the Twins model out 4% worse versus the FGDC simulations. Theres a lot to like about the Miami Marlins, but most of those things are on the pitching side. The ATC projections are more bullish on the White Soxs chances in 2022, putting the odds of Chicago making the playoffs at 82% versus the FanGraphs Depth Charts (FGDC) figure of 72%. Since these are my curated projections, I make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time, as filtered through arbitrary whimsy my logic and reasoning. A daily roundup of Atlanta Braves news from Battery Power, By submitting your email, you agree to our, FanGraphs and PECOTA projected standings for the 2022 season are here, Adam Duvall headed to the Red Sox on a one-year deal. Two of the more popular and respected projection systems - Pecota and FanGraphs - have already released their win totals for each team. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Now, correlations with fewer than 20 points arent ideal, but the individual franchise with the highest year-to-year r^2 is the Mariners, at 0.03, which isnt terribly meaningful. Combined with other changes in the playing time assumptions, Boston basically catches up to the division. Like the Rangers, the Cubs are hoping that they can skip a few steps in The Process by adding talent through free agency. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Cleveland is fairly unscathed, with the drop-off in wins reflecting a drop-off in the overall projections for the roster. Please rate & review the show in iTunes letting us know what you think! by Retrosheet. Correa is an interesting wild card here simply because he elevates the Mets' lineup from top-heavy to balanced. Last year, I introduced these power rankings as a way to think about all 30 teams in baseball and stack them up against each other outside the rigid structures of leagues or divisions. Note that this is NOT the actual 2022-2023 college basketball AP Poll - it's our prediction and projection of what it might be before it's released. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted ZiPS isnt projecting Matt Chapman to set any new personal bests, as his offense has fallen off enough that hes probably left his 201819 MVP-ish peak for good. Juan Soto is one of the most electrifying young players in the game; Washington would do well to extend him and then build a winner around him again. An 85% chance to make the playoffs and a 9% chance to win the World Series at this point is high praise. And the As, well, they didnt have anyone good enough to lose, which is something! This 85-win projection is based on more solid ground. At 12:53 a.m. Sunday, officers went to the 900 block of Greensboro Court on a report of a . I expect a busy offseason for the Mariners, with a definite focus on second base and corner outfield, and the Rangers have already been able to retain their best free agent-to-be, Martin Perez, for the 2023 season. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Posey retired, Kevin Gausman left to the Blue Jays, and Kris Bryant is a free agent and likely not going back to the Giants. Im looking forward to Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez, Cedric Mullins, and quickly changing the subject to the American League Central lest I have to think too much about this team. Those additions might not have been as flashy as adding Carlos Correa or trading for Olson as some Yankees fans dreamed about, but it does give them a solid infield that should be vastly improved defensively. The projections havent figured out how to handle the Rays brand of excessively deep roster construction. Theyll get Ronald Acua Jr. and Mike Soroka back from their respective injuries sometime during the season; Marcell Ozuna will return to the roster as well. Currently viewing seasons between 2022 and 2022 We need your support to make FanGraphs sustainable so you can continue to enjoy all of the stats and tools you've come to rely on, like The. Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch, and Kris Bubic, who collectively comprise the Royals highly regarded first-round haul from 2018, have all made their major league debuts to varying degrees of disappointment. ATC gives San Diego four fewer wins on the 2022 season equating to 60% odds of making the playoffs versus FGDCs 77%. Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Some may think. That was Milwaukees focus this offseason, trading for Hunter Renfroe and signing Andrew McCutchen to supplement the lineup. They did sign Kendall Graveman and Joe Kelly during the offseason, but without Kimbrel or Crochet, the relief corps just isnt as deep as it could have been. Even if they are good this year, thats still the lesson. While most other accumulation models apply equal weight to their underlying sources, ATC assigns weights based on historical performance. The Mets appear certain to drop a lot of cash this winter, but again, they need to, with Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker, Brandon Nimmo, and, well, much of the bullpen all heading to the open market. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 9:47 AM ET, Park Factors ITS ANGELS TIME! You can also support monthly for just $3. Jeremy Pea has shown plenty of promise in the minors and comes in highly regarded, but hes simply not likely to replace his production immediately or fully. These two NL Central rivals feel like theyre heading in different directions despite being projected for the same win totals in 2022. Bobby Witt Jr. made the Opening Day roster, and MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto should be close behind him. tbh I wouldn't give these projections any credit until the offseason finishes. Well start with Fangraphs. Approximately minutes of joyous analysis. Ariel Cohen is a fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and the Society of Actuaries (SOA). The full win total disparity between the two projection engines can be seen below: Both projections have the Dodgers, Braves and Blue Jays as the teams with the highest probability of reaching the postseason; ATC gives a slight edge to the Braves over the Blue Jays. It wasn't even some fluke of shift-related positioning; only four of those 10 bunts came with three. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted 2022 Playoff Odds, . 2022 Projected Standings. With a strong rotation led by Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, it finally seems like Philadelphia has assembled the talent to break their 10-year playoff drought. The Rays will be the Rays, and theyll probably add two wins from random pitchers they pick up from indie leagues, but thats a bit out of ZiPS purview. With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Ariel is also the winner of the 2020 FSWA Baseball Article of the Year award. "@HaloDom47 Whatever it projected was thrown out of whack because of Rendons bitch ass and a lot of the injuries that happened to other players most notably Trout. Now, hes the big loss, but Jameson Taillon and Matt Carpenter matter, too, though it isnt likely that Carpenter will match his 2022 performance anyway. 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